Let’s talk some more about my hair brained “Invent around the counter trend” concept.
In a nutshell, it says … While the masses are investing in hot new trends, invent the counter trend.
I gave you a bunch of trend/counter trend examples in Why Invest in Counter Trends. You might want to start there. Don’t worry, it’s short and to the point.
Ok, on to new stuff …
Last week my “Invest in the Counter Trend” concept collided with Bob Moesta’s book, Demand-Side Sales. It’s a mind bender of a book — that you should read — but the statement that sent me into a fit of smoke and Miro wasn’t core to his big idea. You never know where inspiration going to come from.
Anyhow, it jarred loose a few new business ideas based in my counter trend concept. I’ll share them when it’s time. Hopefully they’ll inspire your own counter trend innovation.
Anyhow, when this product idea came in (into my head) I had to overthink it — as I do. In the overthinking I may have stumbled on a couple of telltales of counter trends that are ripe for counter trending. Let’s start with an easy one.
1. Look for Counter Trends emerging in the grass roots.
We’ve all dabbled with photo/video filters on social media platforms — it’s a massive trend. We’ve all admired these pimple-less, pixel brushed, perfectly proportioned portraits of unattainable beauty. And, while bandwagon startups scrambled to cash in on the trend, the #nofilter counter trend arose from the Grass Roots.
While I don’t think she’s the “official” originator of #nofilter, in my mind Pamela Anderson is now the face of it. While high brows may dismiss her as an over-inflated, over exposed sex bomb running around in a red one piece, Pamela Anderson is a great example of someone who innovates around the counter trend. If you were to write three headlines about her career, every one of them will be a countertrend. Feel free to follow her down the rabbit hole, but for this post I’m just using her to illustrate trends — perfecting the image we release to the world with automated photo/video retouching — and counter trends — the grassroots #nofilter movement.
2. Look for Trends that Conflict with Human Design.
Ok, I know … this one’s going to throw some people because “human design” implies a “human designer” — nevertheless, I use it on purpose. If you are not a theist, feel free to think of this as simply Human Nature. If you don’t believe there is such a thing as human nature, ignore this telltale and do your best to navigate with the first one alone. No pressure, of course. In the future I will completely nerd-out on this point so you understand it fully in a book or a barrage of additional posts here. For now I’ll serve you up an analogy to illustrate.
Trendy Thinking: “AI is good — it will take on much of the hard work we currently do, freeing us up to work less so we can focus on the things that make us happy.” Sorry, I know there’s at least a scoop of snark baked into this statement.
Counter Trendy Thinking: “AI is bad — it’s going to take our jobs. By the way … It’s hard to beat the feeling you have after a good day’s work.”
Which side am I on? Neither, of course. In my opinion, both are flawed.
Flaw of the Trend: The flaw is in the premise of the promise. It says that a human will be happier if their life pies-out with recreation getting the hero’s piece and work getting the smallest of slivers.
(All told — recreation sounds pretty good to me right now. My day job has been pretty taxing. Bring this value prop to me on a particularly toxic day, I would tell myself I was an idiot for even saying that work could bring any sort of happiness. But just because it feels this way today, doesn’t make it true.)
So, how do you test the truthfulness of something like this? Personally, I like to math-up a promise to see if it is still true in the extreme. Let’s try it with our trend/counter trend promises. Multiply both sides of the argument by 1,000 days. There’s nothing special about the number, though I can make something up if it would make you feel better about using it.
Which will make a happier and healthier human — 1,000 days of recreation or 1,000 days of difficult, meaningful work?” (And, after that 1,000 days, which would be a better world to live in?) When I math it up, I call BS on the premise behind the shiny-happy early-retirement promise — because it is in conflict with human design/human nature.
Flaw in the Counter Trend — Why is the, “AI’s going to take my job” counter trend flawed? I ran across a statement in a book called Job Moves, that completely rocked my personal understanding about what feels to me like an artificial push towards the wholesale acceptance of AI. No, it’s not about an evil plot to have AI run the world — though … Anyhow, here’s the quote:
“Korn Ferry estimates that by 2030, the global talent shortage could exceed 85 million people.”
If you think that AI can replace 85 million workers, then it’s okay to believe that you won’t be needed in the future. It’s more likely that humans will have to work just as in the future as today. Yes, it is true that for many, that work will be different. But, it will still be work. You will still be able to go home after a hard day of doing it. And you will still feel like you did something that would be left undone unless you did it.
The moral of the story … If you want to invent meaningful products that serve the future, look beyond the trends and focus on the counter trends. This is where you’ll see a recoil against promises that are not in harmony with human design/nature. And, it’s always smart to invest in things that are in harmony with human design.
What’s next? What do you do when you spot a countertrend in the grass roots? There is an obvious path — to double down on the counter trend. And, there is a not-so obvious path — to understand what’s at work at a human nature/design level, and to invent there. And, don’t ignore the trend, just because its promise doesn’t survive a math-up. There is truth there too. Something about it resonated with human design/nature.
