It’d be trendy to write this with AI. Crafting it from beautiful bits from the very best of the internet, generative AI can do a convincing, perhaps even inspiring job. And because it’s on-trend to use AI, you might even tell someone about it, “Hey, I just read a really interesting article written by AI.” That’s a great conversation starter. Some will want to fret aloud about how AI is going to take all of our jobs. Others will celebrate that in the future people will be freed from doing hard things. Unfortunately, for you today, you’re stuck with something counter trendy — just a regular human sharing an idea to consider.
So … what’s this post about? We’ve all fantasized about getting in on the ground floor of the next big thing, right before it takes off. An instant gazillionaire, you could quit your job and be thoroughly suntanned and unproductive the rest of your life. Yummy, right?
Anyhow, while you’re waiting for this to happen, I’ll give you something to diversify your get-rich-quick strategy — investing in the counter trend.
How do you find one? First. Identify a trend that makes life easier with little or no obvious consequences. For example purposes … let’s take a look at the fast food industry. Imaging someone telling you about fast food for the very first time. “You gotta try it. There’s this new restaurant that sells the most tasty food around. It’s super cheap and good. You’re going to crave it and want to eat it all of the time. No problem though, they’re open around the clock, even on holidays. And, you don’t even have to go inside. Get this — you can drive your car right up to the building. You just tell them what you want with a microphone and then roll down your window and they hand it to you. Seconds later your entire car is filled with the most delicious smells you can imagine. It’s all packaged so you can eat it while you’re driving, if you want.” Pretty compelling elevator pitch, right?
It’s a wonder why we would continue to try and innovate around food, but we did. You’d think we’d go all Jetsons and make it even easier and quicker — replacing chewing with swallowing a pill. That would be much quicker, probably cheaper, we’d be skinnier, and probably have all of the vitamins, minerals and drops of Retsin a person needs to live a happy life. But, instead of picking up speed, at some point, the trend reversed for many. My unscientific, gappy, overlapping history of culinary evolution goes something like this.
- Home cooked produce
- Home cooked processed food
- Fast food
- Fast casual
- Organic
- “No Freezers or Can Openers” Fast casual
- Curated grocery, home cooking kits
- Seasonal, farm to table dining
- Home-cooked artisanal fine dining
While humans were attracted to the automated, fast, cheap and tasty — and many, many still are — the trend is moving towards food that is fresh, healthy, authentic, more expensive, more difficult to prepare. Nothing is fast in this world. The best things need time to butcher, chop, cure, ferment, rest, brew and age before they’re at their ready. I could ask AI to get me some statistics to make this observation more academic, but I don’t think anybody will need the extra convincing.
So, in this example, investing in the counter trend stops investing in Taco Bell gift cards, and starts investing a chef knife with detailed instructions on how to care for its blade and handle. This is an example of your move for today, but not necessarily your move for tomorrow. Tomorrow will most likely pivot back to fast, easy and cheap, before pivoting back again.
Trends Ripe for Counter-Trend Investment:
AI — While AI will have a place, I believe that humans will recoil against it as the authenticity of online experience comes into question. This is related to the deep-fake fear people had around the recent election. In the future state you won’t be trying to sniff out if a TikTok is deep faked. Many of our every day conversations in the future will be with AI. If you believe phones and video experiences can be easily faked, invest in a new way for humans to interact. I think the future is going to be increasingly face-to-face and deals over handshakes will become common again.
Autonomous — Instead of automating consumer experiences, make them more artisanal.
Exclusivity of Ownership — Remember when premium vehicles were proudly identified with big, bold, branding? Look again. Today these brand badges are minimized and blacked out. Invest in Exclusivity of Experience. The marathoner at your party will always cary more weight than the dude driving the bimmer. The guy who started something, more than the guy with the degree from somewhere prestigious.
“Gold Plated” Products — While others are investing in products with more and more features, invest in simple things that deliver foundational value. I like to say “You can still get a pretty good pickup truck for $100,000.” People laugh and shrug. That’s just the way the world is, right? Then Toyota releases a $10K truck. Maybe everything doesn’t need to do everything and come with everything.
There is a lot of talk about “disruption” now a days. Clayton would roll in his grave to see how some people have rewritten Disruption Theory — without ever reading his book. True disruption starts with a noble vision of a better world. It’s insightfully playing the counter trend.
